Brickstone Capital Flow Reports Jan-Apr 2026 (Issue 03)

Executive Summary

Nigeria’s external capital account opened in 2026 with a surge of extraordinary scale. Total capital inflows reached
USD 3.52 billion in January 2026, representing a 181.6% month-on-month acceleration from December 2025
baseline, the single largest monthly inflow volume recorded in the current monetary tightening cycle.1 This peak was
driven entirely by portfolio capital responding to the extraordinary real yield advantage embedded in the Nigerian
fixed-income market following the 2024 NBS CPI rebasing exercise, which reset the measured inflation trajectory to
a structurally lower level and, in doing so, pushed real policy rates firmly into positive territory for foreign investors.

The composition of these inflows, however, reinforces a structural vulnerability that has consistently flagged across
this series: 95.72% of January’s USD 3.52 billion consisted of portfolio investment, including short-term, yield-chasing
capital deployed principally into Treasury Bills and OMO instruments.2 Foreign Direct Investment, the
durable capital that finances productive capacity, contributed a mere USD 0.03 billion, or 0.77% of total inflows. This
is not a flow structure that builds an economy. It is a flow structure that can, under adverse global conditions,
reverse with the same speed and violence with which it arrived.

The period under review closes with a more cautionary signal. By April 2026, external reserves had declined by
USD 731 million, from USD 49.18 billion in March to USD 48.45 billion, reflecting a consolidation phase marked by
portfolio outflows triggered by mild global risk-off positioning.3 The reserve buffer remains substantial, and the CBN’s
ability to manage orderly FX conditions is not in question at current reserve levels. However, the trajectory
reinforces the fundamental asymmetry of Nigeria’s current capital account: inflows arrive in concentrated bursts tied
to yield dynamics; outflows, when they occur, are systematic and indiscriminate.

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